Down by 0.1 degrees, catastrophe still eminent, after India & China’s target announcement

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• • Researchers at Climate Resource say that average temperatures to now peak at 1.9 degrees instead of the earlier 2 degrees
• • The new development comes after India and China’s announcement to achieve net-zero emissions by 2070 and 2060 each.

India’s pledge to reach the net-zero emission target by 2070 may not have enthralled climate enthusiasts, but studies have discovered that the world is on course for global average temperatures to now peak at 1.9 degrees Celsius above pre-Industrial levels instead of the earlier 2 degrees, by the end of the century – assuming all national carbon reduction and net-zero pledges are delivered.

The new number is still a long way from the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold, which is the aim of COP26 Summit, but researchers believe it makes a useful difference.

Researchers at Climate Resource have run the numbers through their IPCC AR6 WG1-consistent climate emulator Magicc - which results in a best-estimate projection of a 1.9C peak warming this century.

Also Read: COP26: India to achieve net-zero emission by 2070, PM Modi pledges

“For the first time in history, the aggregate effect of the combined pledges by 194 countries might bring the world to below 2C warming with more than a 50% chance,” it said in a briefing note.

India’s newly announced climate targets, including an ultimate goal of reaching net-zero emissions by 2070, is one of the key drivers of the new projections, Climate Resource said. In addition to that, China’s pledge to reach net-zero emissions by 2060 – formalized under the Paris Agreement process just last week – also helped to shift the temperature dial.

Also Read: U.S. Official asks China to do more to tackle climate change

Last week, the UN’s analysis projected a temperature rise of 2.2C if all nations keep on track to achieve their net-zero goals.

Saving the sinking ship, one drop at a time

An increase in the world’s temperature by two degrees Celsius would subject a third of the world's population to extreme heat regularly, causing health problems and increasing heat-related deaths. Almost all warm-water coral reefs would be lost, and the Arctic Sea ice would melt completely at least once per decade, wreaking havoc on the species and communities who rely on it.

The consequences would be considerable, but less severe, at 1.5°C which is why limiting every fraction of warming is important.

Also Read: Convening for a greener future - COP26 and its relevance

To keep within 1.5 degrees Celsius, we must nearly eliminate emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, chopping down forests, and some industrial activities by mid of century.

The latest study does limit warming to 1.9 degrees, which isn’t still enough, and is only possible if countries stick to their targets.

Inputs from The Guardian and Climate Resource

Picture Credits: Climate Resource